IS there a "New Normal?" #phenology

We've always lived someplace that had four seasons. As we recall, the transitions between seasons in New England were more gradual than those in the upper Midwest, probably because we lived near the coast in Massachusetts. We remember several times that it was raining as we left home and snowing five miles inland as we pulled onto the highway. Climate change, aka global warming is reported to be triggering more intense storms and a more aberrant pattern. We thought we understood how that was likely to play out. Then we came to 2018.

Here's a couple of graphics from the National Weather Service that portray a pattern that makes us wonder when or if we'll ever enter into some sort of new "normal," if we take normal to mean "conforming to the standard or the common type; usual; not abnormal; regular; natural."

Source: National Weather Service

In our neck of the woods, May was almost 9℉ above normal. But, look at the transition from April to May on "average" for the whole month. May was about 30℉ warmer than April. That's quite a jump, about double the "average" monthly change shown in US Climate data. We don't recall seeing any estimates of the effects that such large transitions, in a compressed time frame, may have on nature's "normal" patterns. As we've noted before and elsewhere, Minnesota's weather would be fantastic if our averages weren't made from such extremes. Instability and volatility are bad for business and living things.

Source: National Weather Service

Despite the trend in scientists' reports noting that the effects of what we've done to the atmosphere and oceans look like they've been underestimated for their severity,  we think humans have the ability to adjust and adapt to the problems we're creating, but not if we keep fighting yesterday's wars. We didn't believe enough US voters could be misguided enough to allow a charlatan to be nominated, let alone elected (by a minority of voters) to serve as president of the US. Clearly we were misguided on that as well as uninformed on the extent and effectiveness of foreign power interference. But, the same country that put astronauts on the moon, helped defeat fascist dictators and a misguided subculture that believe humans should be chattel, should be able to recover from it's latest round of short-sighted self-centeredness.

We all need to come to believe that, working together, we can make the choice between jobs and the environment a false choice. Do we have a major political party that truly includes that in their platform? No so's we can find it. The United Nations has adopted, through a vote of its members, sustainable development goals. We think that's a beneficial place to engage capital and labor in a conversation about moving away from winner take all politics. Think about it, if the 1% end up with 99% of the world's capital, who the hell will be able to buy anything their corporations produce? Responding to climate change should be framed with a democratic effort to apply the sustainable development goals. Several models for how to do that are contained in Mirriam Horn's Rancher, Farmer, Fisherman: Conservation Heroes of the American Heartland. Read it, watch the documentary, think about it. Don't end up being one of those people who'd rather fight than win.

Bounden Duty

By James Tate

               I got a call from the White House, from the

President himself, asking me if I’d do him a personal

favor. I like the President, so I said, “Sure, Mr.

President, anything you like.” He said, “Just act

like nothing’s going on. Act normal. That would

mean the world to me. Can you do that, Leon?” “Why,

sure, Mr. President, you’ve got it. Normal, that’s

how I’m going to act. I won’t let on, even if I’m

tortured,” I said, immediately regretting that “tortured”

bit. He thanked me several times and hung up. I was

dying to tell someone that the President himself called

me, but I knew I couldn’t. The sudden pressure to

act normal was killing me. And what was going on

anyway. I didn’t know anything was going on. I

saw the President on TV yesterday. He was shaking

hands with a farmer. What if it wasn’t really a

farmer? I needed to buy some milk, but suddenly

I was afraid to go out. I checked what I had on.

I looked “normal” to me, but maybe I looked more

like I was trying to be normal. That’s pretty

suspicious. I opened the door and looked around.

What was going on? There was a car parked in front

of my car that I had never seen before, a car that

was trying to look normal, but I wasn’t fooled.

If you need milk, you have to get milk, otherwise

people will think something’s going on. I got into

my car and sped down the road. I could feel those

little radar guns popping behind every tree and bush,

but, apparently, they were under orders not to stop

me. I ran into Kirsten in the store. “Hey, what’s

going on, Leon?” she said. She had a very nice smile.

I hated to lie to her. “Nothing’s going on. Just

getting milk for my cat,” I said. “I didn’t know

you had a cat,” she said. “I meant to say coffee.

You’re right, I don’t have a cat. Sometimes I

refer to my coffee as my cat. It’s just a private

joke. Sorry,” I said. “Are you all right?” she

asked. “Nothing’s going on, Kirsten. I promise

you. Everything is normal. The President shook

hands with a farmer, a real farmer. Is that such

a big deal?” I said. “I saw that,” she said, “and

that man was definitely not a farmer.” “Yeah, I

know,” I said, feeling better.

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