Woolly bear confirms Old Farmer's forecast?

A few weeks ago we noted we hadn't yet seen any woolly bear caterpillars this year. Today we saw one on the road as we walked our dog at midday. We even have photographic proof. Now, consider what the National Weather Service has to say about what you're seeing:

today's woolly bear sighted

Photo by J. Harrington

According to folklore, the amount of black on the woolly bear in autumn varies proportionately with the severity of the coming winter in the locality where the caterpillar is found.  The longer the woolly bear's black bands, the longer, colder, snowier, and more severe the winter will be.  Similarly, the wider the middle brown band is associated with a milder upcoming winter.  The position of the longest dark bands supposedly indicates which part of winter will be coldest or hardest.  If the head end of the caterpillar is dark, the beginning of winter will be severe.  If the tail end is dark, the end of winter will be cold. In addition, the woolly bear caterpillar has 13 segments to its body, which traditional forecasters say correspond to the 13 weeks of winter.

We believe we see notably less brown and consequently more black in the photo above. We also believe that the black seems weighted toward the head end of the caterpillar so Winter could start with a bang. This assessment, plus the folklore, unfortunately seems to correspond with the Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts for a Winter that's more snowy and colder than normal in the Midwest. We wonder if the folks at Old Farmer's have their own stash of woolly bear caterpillars.

meanwhile, yellow hawkweed blooms in sunshine

Photo by J. Harrington

Meanwhile, we're really enjoying another wonderful late Summer day full of yellow hawkweed and sunflowers blooming in the sunshine. We have at least the psychological satisfaction of having mowed the sand burrs along the property's road edge in hopes that we can diminish their continued encroachment and expansion into our property, and maybe spare the dog and the dog walker some burr-picking exercises. Much as we prefer living an "organic" life, we're seriously considering pre-emergent herbicide use next Spring, although the Better Half noted that an early start on mowing might keep the plants from producing burrs. We'll see how we feel about which option to go with after we've made it through Winter's rigors. We are once again reminded of our Dad's observation that "It's a great life, if you don't weaken."

He Watches the Weather Channel

Carrie Shipers

                   After Reagan Lothes
 
Because nothing else is on so early 
in the morning when he drinks coffee 
in an empty house.  Because almanacs 

are of limited use compared to satellites.
Because spring will have to come somehow 
and cold reminds him which bones 

he’s broken.  Because every flight delayed 
or canceled is one he won’t be on.  Because 
people should stay where they’re from, 

except his children, who were right to leave.  
Because a flood will take what it can 
and move uphill.  Because just once 

he’d like to see a tornado touch down 
in an empty field and go away
hungry.  Because his wife nearly died 

on an icy road.  Because he can’t prepare 
for disasters he doesn’t understand.
Because wind keeps him awake.  Because 

his boots are by the door, but his slicker 
is in his truck.  Because he can’t change 
a damn thing forecast and uncertainty aches 

like a tired muscle, an unhealed wound.

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