Colors of season change plus or minus climate change? #phenology

I remember reading that climate breakdown would lead to warmer/hotter temperatures and less frequent but more intense storms. Last Spring was wetter than usual around here, the Summer hasn't been as hot as I recall past Summers being, and now that we've begun to enter Autumn, we're again experiencing extended periods of rainfall with occasional heavy downpours.

clouds, clouds, and more clouds this month

Photo by J. Harrington

I'm not questioning or denying climate breakdown. In fact, I expect to be participating in a Climate Strike event a week from tomorrow. But what is one to make of it when the anticipated change in local weather patterns doesn't appear to approximate what we were told to expect? Fortunately, for those of us who are inquisitive, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has assembled some interesting and informative web pages about climate change (breakdown) in Minnesota. Here's a sample:

Minnesota has warmed by 2.9F between 1895 and 2017, while getting an average of 3.4 inches wetter. While Minnesota has gotten warmer and wetter since 1895, the most dramatic changes have come in the past several decades. Compared to 20th century averages, all but two years since 1970 have been some combination of warm and wet, and each of the top-10 combined warmest and wettest years on record occurred between 1998 and 2017. Although climate conditions will vary from year to year, these increases are expected to continue through the 21st century.

typical level of Autumn color for local mid-September

Photo by J. Harrington

MNDNR notes that there are anomalous periods within the broader longer trends. Perhaps that's where this year fits. MNDNR has also activated their Fall Color Map for this year. Most of Minnesota has 0% - 10% leaf color showing. Some of the state, interestingly both along the Northern and Southern borders, shows 10% - 25% color. It's still early in the leaf viewing season but we find ourselves wondering about what relationship, if any, exists between long bouts of cloudy weather and tree leaves determining that the year's photosynthesis time is up. The older we get the more we realize how much we don't know.

[UPDATE: MNDNR claims we may get lots of color, if we get some sun, or not!.]

Autumn

By Adam Zagajewski
Translated by Renata Gorczynski

Autumn is always too early.

The peonies are still blooming, bees   

are still working out ideal states,

and the cold bayonets of autumn   

suddenly glint in the fields and the wind

rages.

What is its origin? Why should it destroy   

dreams, arbors, memories?

The alien enters the hushed woods,   

anger advancing, insinuating plague;   

woodsmoke, the raucous howls

of Tatars.

Autumn rips away leaves, names,   

fruit, it covers the borders and paths,   

extinguishes lamps and tapers; young   

autumn, lips purpled, embraces   

mortal creatures, stealing

their existence.

Sap flows, sacrificed blood,

wine, oil, wild rivers,

yellow rivers swollen with corpses,

the curse flowing on: mud, lava, avalanche,   

gush.

Breathless autumn, racing, blue

knives glinting in her glance.

She scythes names like herbs with her keen   

sickle, merciless in her blaze

and her breath. Anonymous letter, terror,   

Red Army.

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